This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50

Two boxes, one choice, and $1,000,000. Sponsored by Brilliant - To learn for free on Brilliant for a full 30 days, go to https://brilliant.org/veritasium. Our viewers also get 20% off an annual Premium subscription, which gives you unlimited daily access to everything on Brilliant. In 2025, we launched the Elements of Truth game on Kickstarter and were thrilled by the response. We’re now in the final stages of production, with Kickstarter rewards shipping soon. If you missed the campaign, you can now pre-order the retail edition through our new website here -https://ve42.co/NewcombDesc If you’re looking for a molecular modelling kit, try Snatoms, a kit I invented where the atoms snap together magnetically - https://ve42.co/SnatomsV Sign up for the Veritasium newsletter for weekly science updates - https://ve42.co/Newsletter ▀▀▀ A huge thank you to Dr. Arif Ahmed, Dr. Adam Elga, Dr. Kenny Easwaran, Dr. Peter Slezak, Dr. David Wolpert, Dr. Scott Aaronson & Dr. Michael Huemer for their invaluable expertise and contributions to this video on Newcomb’s Paradox. The causal expected utility calculation was based on a post by Professor Huemer here - https://ve42.co/Huemer ▀▀▀ 0:00 What is Newcomb’s Paradox? 3:24 Pick 1 Box! 5:24 Pick Both! 6:38 What is decision theory? 11:27 What does Newcomb’s Paradox say about free will? 13:25 What does it mean to be rational? 16:49 Mutually Assured Destruction 20:02 Precommitment Is The Ultimate Strategy ▀▀▀ References can be found here - https://ve42.co/NewcombRefs ▀▀▀ Special thanks to our Patreon supporters: Albert Wenger, Sam Lutfi, Michael Krugman, Sinan Taifour, Marinus Kuivenhoven, Lee Redden, Richard Sundvall, Ubiquity Ventures, David Johnston, Juan Benet, Paul Peijzel, Meekay, Evgeny Skvortsov, Blake Byers, Dave Kircher, Gnare, Anton Ragin, KeyWestr, meg noah, Tj Steyn, Orlando Bassotto, Adam Foreman, Balkrishna Heroor, Jesse Brandsoy, Garrett Mueller, Kyi, Ibby Hadeed, Bertrand Serlet, wolfee, David Tseng, Bruce, Al